Dutch Polls: Major Parties and Main Issues in Snap Vote
Voters in the Holland are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing administration in recent memory with a more centrist and commonsense coalition during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
What's Happening and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were triggered after the breakdown of the outgoing government in June, when far-right politician the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual ruling coalition.
The PVV had finished shockingly first in the previous general election, and after extended negotiations formed a fragile four-party rightwing coalition with the populist Farmer-Citizen Movement, centrist New Social Contract and liberal-conservative VVD.
However, Wilders' coalition partners considered him too controversial for the premier position, which was given to a former intelligence chief. Wilders, an anti-immigration commentator who has lived under police protection for two decades, began criticizing from the sidelines.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on 3 June after his partners refused to adopt a far-reaching 10-point anti-immigration plan that included using military forces to guard frontiers, turning back all refugee applicants, shutting down refugee hostels and sending home all Syria nationals.
While backing of the PVV has declined, polls indicate the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to win the most seats in parliament. But, main Dutch political formations have collectively rejected forming a government with Wilders.
No fewer than 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but no single party is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. Typically, the future Netherlands administration, generally an influential player on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could take several months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
There are 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to achieve majority status. No individual group typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by coalitions for over 100 years.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through proportional representation, based on an certified roster of candidates in a single, nationwide constituency: any party that secures 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in much of Europe, Netherlands political life have been marked in modern times by a significant drop in support for the historical ruling parties from the centre-right and left, whose electoral support has shrunk from over four-fifths in the 1980s to barely two-fifths now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been paralleled by a remarkable multiplication of smaller parties: 27 are running this time, including a party for the over-50s, a young people's party, a party for animals, a basic income advocacy group, and a party for sport.
Key Players and Primary Concerns
Currently leading is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It advocates, among other policies, a complete freeze on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to combat "urban violence", and an end to "progressive education" in schools.
Two parties, of the moderate right and left, are closely competing after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) dominated Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but slumped to just five seats in the previous poll.
However, under its young leader, its promising new figure, who entered politics only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a electoral platform emphasizing the dire Dutch housing crisis and a commitment of "normal, civilised politics". It is projected for as many as 26 seats.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the green party and the established social democratic party that is anticipated to become a complete unification, is projected to secure comparable seats, according to polling averages.
Led by the experienced ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, it has made constructing additional housing its primary focus, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its platform.
Three additional groups look likely to be significant forces in the next legislature.
The liberal-progressive D66 is on course to gain seats – capturing up to 17, from its current nine – under its straight-talking young leader, with a platform focused on residential construction (it proposes to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the ex-premier (now Nato chief), is predicted to decline to no more than sixteen mandates from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of moving the group excessively rightward, held responsible for its decline. It is promising corporate tax reductions and less welfare.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from another far-right party – the once popular, now scandal-hit Forum for Democracy – and seems to be benefiting from an exodus of supporters from the three major rightwing parties. It could secure fourteen mandates.
Besides the VVD and PVV, both remaining members in the unsuccessful outgoing coalition, the farmer and centrist parties, are expected to lose out, with the centrist party not even guaranteed representation in parliament.
The primary concerns so far have been migration policy, with multiple – sometimes violent – demonstrations against proposed asylum facilities for asylum seekers, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of housing (the nation is short of four hundred thousand residences).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the deeply divided state of Dutch politics, what alliances are actually possible is just as important as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who insists he wants to head a minority administration).
After the election, MPs first designate an informateur, who seeks out potential partnerships. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, typically the leader of the largest potential partner, begins negotiating the government program. This can take months.
Multiple options look possible, typically including a mix of political groups from centre left and center right. The most probable, according to political analysts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and one or more smaller parties potentially including the conservative party.
