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The gravest potential impacts of the climate crisis for the UK have been outlined by scientists, encompassing a blistering 4C increase in mean temperatures to a 2-metre increase in sea level. A separate possibility envisions a plunge of 6C in temperature following the collapse of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact agriculture and power requirements.

Possible Events, Not Forecasts

These impacts, some of which are connected to irreversible climate shifts, are considered as unlikely but credible. The team stated that these models plugged a hole in forecasting that had left the UK ill-prepared for worst-case results.

"The severe weather events we have outlined should not be seen as certainties, but they are credible," stated the lead researcher who directed the analysis. "The nation has been making preparations lacking the methods to plan for catastrophic outcomes. We've now provided planners what they need to get ready for environmental results they wish to avoid, but dare not dismiss."

A Range of Extreme Weather Projections

Another collection of severe models details the potential extent of extreme weather between now and the close of the 2100s. These show that thermometer readings could rocket in certain periods by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be 300% of typical amounts.

The chance of the extreme scenarios occurring could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what action will be taken to address global warming and how the Earth's systems will respond. This approach was likened to defence planning or stress tests for the banking sector.

Key Possibility Highlights

• Severe Heating: Worldwide averages exceeding 4C by 2100 could occur if climate action collapses or if powerful amplifying effects like the Amazon basin becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would cause extreme and prolonged heatwaves and droughts plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A key circulation system, the North Atlantic current, is losing strength and losing stability due to ocean warming. A collapse commencing by 2030 would lead to a six-degree temperature drop in the UK. "Farming would face immense difficulties and freshwater availability would be drastically changed," said the lead researcher.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the polar regions collapse rapidly, flooding seaside communities. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already known by planners.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be increased by about 0.75C if pollution from industry is rapidly cleaned up. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter sunlight from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Extreme

These dire projections could be used to inform the development of long-term infrastructure, for example expanded cities, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Knowledge about these environmental threats could also hasten the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The research created the severe projections using a combination of real-world events, digital projections and scientific theory. The possibilities do not take into account broader worldwide issues such as the global food shortages and resource wars.

The project was commissioned as part of a national climate resilience programme. Previous assessments have cautioned that too little consideration was being allocated to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

An independent advisory body has recommended that the UK needs to "adapt to 2C" and evaluate the dangers for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "inadequate" by environmental groups.

A government spokesperson commented: "The climate emergency is at the center of the country's focus, both preparing for impacts and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is essential that the UK is resilient for the consequences."