Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Return
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the body could enforce an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.
The trade unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
