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Within the immense confusion surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and capture its head of state – only a few days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, financial discontent and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, given what – and who – could be next.